“Last year, a major meta-analysis that re-examined 107 studies over 40 years came to the conclusion that no amount of alcohol improves health,” the New York Times reported this June, citing a study co-authored by Tim Stockwell, an epidemiologist at the Canadian Institute for Substance Use Research. Dr. Stockwell (and other scientists he’s collaborated with) “are overhauling decades-worth of scientific evidence — and newspaper headlines — that backed the health benefits of alcohol,” writes the Telegraph, “or what is known in the scientific community as the J-curve. The J-curve is the theory that, like a capital J, the negative health consequences of drinking dip slightly into positive territory with moderate drinking — as it benefits such things as the heart — before rising sharply back into negative territory the more someone drinks.”
But Stockwell’s study prompted at least one scientist to accuse Stockwell of “cherry picking” evidence to suit an agenda — while a think-tank executive suggests he’s a front for a worldwide temperance lobby:
Dr Stockwell denies this. Speaking to The Telegraph, he in turn accused his detractors of being funded by the alcohol lobby and said his links to temperance societies were fleeting. He was the president of the Kettil Bruun Society (a think tank born out of what was the international temperance congresses) [from 2005 to 2007] and he has been reimbursed for addressing temperance movements and admits attending their meetings, but, he says, not as a member…
Former British government scientist Richard Harding, who gave evidence on safe drinking to the House of Commons select committee on science and technology in 2011, told The Telegraph that Dr Stockwell had wrongly taken a correlation to be causal. “Dr Stockwell’s research is essentially epidemiology, which is the study of populations,” Dr Harding said. “You record people’s lifestyle and then see what diseases they get and try to correlate the disease with some aspect of their lifestyle. But it is just a correlation, it’s just an association. Epidemiology can never establish causality on its own. And in this particular case, Dr Stockwell selected six studies out of 107 to focus on. You could say he cherry picked them. Really, the important thing is not the epidemiology, it’s the effect that alcohol actually has on the body. We know the reasons why the curve is J-shaped; it’s because of the protective effect moderate consumption has on heart disease and a number of other diseases.”
Dr Stockwell rejects Dr Harding’s criticism of his study, telling The Telegraph that Dr Harding “doesn’t appear to have read it” and accusing him of being in the pocket of the alcohol industry. “We identified six high-quality studies out of 107 and they didn’t find any J-shaped curve,” Dr Stockwell said. “In fact, since our recent paper, we’ve now got genetic studies which are showing there’s no benefits of low-level alcohol use. I personally think there might still be small benefits, but the point of our work is that, if there are benefits, they’ve been exaggerating them.”
The article notes that Stockwell’s research “has been published in The Lancet, among other esteemed organs,” and that “scientists he has collaborated with on research highlighting the dangers of alcohol are in positions of power at major institutions, such as the World Health Organisation.”
And honestly, the opposing viewpoint seems to be thinly-sourced. Besides Harding (the former British government scientist), the article cites:
The head of lifestyle economics at the Institute of Economic Affairs (which Wikipedia describes as “a right-wing, free market think tank”)
An alcohol policy specialist at Brock University in Ontario (who argues rather unconvincingly that “you can’t measure when someone didn’t hurt themselves because a friend invited them for a drink.”)
On the basis of that, the article writes “respected peers say it is far from settled science and have cast doubt on his research”. (And that “fellow academics and experts” told The Telegraph “they read the report in disbelief.”) Did the Telegraph speak to others who just aren’t mentioned in the story? Or are they extrapolating, in that famous British tabloid journalism sort of way?
Read more of this story at Slashdot.
