Bill Gates Interviews Sam Altman, Who Predicts Fastest Tech Revolution ‘By Far’

This week on his podcast Bill Gates asked Sam Altman how his team is doing after his (temporary) ouster, Altman replies “a lot of people have remarked on the fact that the team has never felt more productive or more optimistic or better. So, I guess that’s like a silver lining of all of this. In some sense, this was like a real moment of growing up for us, we are very motivated to become better, and sort of to become a company ready for the challenges in front of us.”

The rest of their conversation was pre-ouster — but gave fascinating glimpses at the possible future of AI — including the prospect of very speedy improvements. Altman suggests it will be easier to understand how a creative work gets “encoded” in an AI than it would be in a human brain. “There has been some very good work on interpretability, and I think there will be more over time… The little bits we do understand have, as you’d expect, been very helpful in improving these things. We’re all motivated to really understand them, scientific curiosity aside, but the scale of these is so vast….”

BILL GATES: I’m pretty sure, within the next five years, we’ll understand it. In terms of both training efficiency and accuracy, that understanding would let us do far better than we’re able to do today.
SAM ALTMAN: A hundred percent. You see this in a lot of the history of technology where someone makes an empirical discovery. They have no idea what’s going on, but it clearly works. Then, as the scientific understanding deepens, they can make it so much better.

BILL GATES: Yes, in physics, biology, it’s sometimes just messing around, and it’s like, whoa — how does this actually come together…? When you look at the next two years, what do you think some of the key milestones will be?

SAM ALTMAN: Multimodality will definitely be important.
BILL GATES: Which means speech in, speech out?
SAM ALTMAN: Speech in, speech out. Images. Eventually video. Clearly, people really want that…. [B]ut maybe the most important areas of progress will be around reasoning ability. Right now, GPT-4 can reason in only extremely limited ways. Also reliability. If you ask GPT-4 most questions 10,000 times, one of those 10,000 is probably pretty good, but it doesn’t always know which one, and you’d like to get the best response of 10,000 each time, and so that increase in reliability will be important.

Customizability and personalization will also be very important. People want very different things out of GPT-4: different styles, different sets of assumptions. We’ll make all that possible, and then also the ability to have it use your own data. The ability to know about you, your email, your calendar, how you like appointments booked, connected to other outside data sources, all of that. Those will be some of the most important areas of improvement.
Areas where Altman sees potential are healthcare, education, and especially computer programming. “If you make a programmer three times more effective, it’s not just that they can do three times more stuff, it’s that they can — at that higher level of abstraction, using more of their brainpower — they can now think of totally different things. It’s like, going from punch cards to higher level languages didn’t just let us program a little faster — it let us do these qualitatively new things. And we’re really seeing that…

“I think it’s worth always putting it in context of this technology that, at least for the next five or ten years, will be on a very steep improvement curve. These are the stupidest the models will ever be.”

He predicts the fastest technology revolution “by far,” worrying about “the speed with which society is going to have to adapt, and that the labor market will change.” But soon he adds that “We started investing a little bit in robotics companies. On the physical hardware side, there’s finally, for the first time that I’ve ever seen, really exciting new platforms being built there.”

And at some point Altman tells Gates he’s optimistic that AI could contribute to helping humans get along with each other.

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New Paper on ‘MOND’ Argues That Gravity Changes At Very Low Accelerations

porkchop_d_clown (Slashdot reader #39,923) writes:
MOND — MOdified Newtonian Dynamics is a hypothesis that Newton’s law of gravity is incorrect under some conditions. Now a paper claims that a study does indeed show that pairs of widely separated binary stars do show a deviation from Newton’s Second Law, arguing that, at very low levels, gravity is stronger than the law predicts.
Phys.org writes that the study “reinforces the evidence for modified gravity that was previously reported in 2023 from an analysis of the orbital motions of gravitationally bound, widely separated (or long-period) binary stars, known as wide binaries.”

But RockDoctor (Slashdot reader #15,477) calls the hypothesis “very much disputed.”
YouTubing-astrophysicist Dr Becky considered this report a couple of months ago (2023-Nov-09), under the title “HUGE blow for alternate theory of gravity MOND”. At the very least, astrophysicists and cosmologists are deeply undecided whether this data supports or discourages MOND. (Shortened comment because verification problem.)

Last week, I updated my annual count of MOND and other “alternative gravity” publications. While research on MOND (and others) continues, and any “suppression” the tin-foil-hat brigade want to scream about is ineffective, it remains an unpopular (not-equal-to “suppressed”) field. Generally, astronomical publication counts are increasing, and MOND sticks with that trend. If anything is becoming more popular, it’s the “MOG” type of “MOdified Gravity”.

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US Regulator Considers Stripping Boeing’s Right To Self-Inspect Planes

After a 737 Max door panel blew out over Portland, Oregon, last week, the Federal Aviation Administration ordered the temporary grounding of Boeing 737 Max 9 aircraft until emergency inspections were performed. “Alaska and United Airlines, which operate most of the Max 9s in use in the United States, said on Monday that they discovered loose hardware on the panel when conducting preliminary inspections on their planes,” reported the New York Times. Now, U.S. aviation regulators say they may strip Boeing of its right to conduct some of its aircraft inspections. The Financial Times reports: Mike Whitaker, FAA administrator, said the agency was “exploring” its options for using an independent third-party to oversee inspections of Boeing’s aircraft and its quality controls. “It is time to re-examine the delegation of authority and assess any associated safety risks,” he said. “The grounding of the 737-9 and the multiple production-related issues identifiedÂin recent years [at Boeing] require us to look at every option to reduce risk.”

The regulator also said it plans to immediately increase its oversight of Boeing’s production. The FAA opened an investigation on Thursday into whether the planes Boeing builds match the specifications it has laid out. The FAA said it will audit the 737 Max 9 production line and its suppliers “to evaluate Boeing’s compliance with its approved quality procedures,” with further audits conducted as necessary.

Washington Senator Maria Cantwell sent a letter (PDF) yesterday to the FAA questioning the agency’s role in inspecting aircraft manufactured by Boeing. Cantwell said she asked a year ago for an audit of certain areas related to Boeing’s production, and the regulator told her it was unnecessary. “Recent accidents and incidents — including the expelled door plug on Alaska Airlines flight 1282 — call into question Boeing’s quality control,” she said. “In short, it appears that FAA’s oversight processes have not been effective in ensuring that Boeing produces aeroplanes that are in condition for safe operation.”

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Micron Displays Next-Gen LPCAMM2 Modules For Laptops At CES 2024

At CES 2024 this week, Micron demonstrated its next-gen LPCAMM2 memory modules based on LPDDR5X memory. Not only are they smaller and more powerful than traditional SODIMMs, they can be “serviced during the manufacturing process and upgraded by the user,” says Micron. Tom’s Hardware reports: Micron’s LPCAMM2 are industry-standard memory modules that will be available in 16 GB, 32 GB, and 64 GB capacities as well as with speed bins of up to a 9600 MT/s data transfer rate. These modules are designed to replace conventional SODIMMs as well as soldered-down LPDDR5X memory subsystem while offering the best of both worlds: flexibility, repairability, and upgradeability of modular memory solutions as well as high performance and low power consumption of mobile DRAM. Indeed, a Micron LPCAMM2 module is smaller than a traditional SODIMM despite the fact that it has a 128-bit memory interface and up to 64 GB of LPDDR5X memory onboard. Needless to say, the module is massively smaller than two SODIMM memory sticks that offer a 128-bit memory interface both in terms of height and in terms of physical footprint.

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Android 15 Could Bring Widgets Back To the Lock Screen

After removing the feature with Android 5.0 in 2015, Google appears to be bringing back lock screen widgets in the next version of Android. “There haven’t been any indications since then that Google would ever bring this feature back,” notes Android Authority. “But after Apple introduced widgets to the iPhone lock screen in iOS 16, many speculated that it was only a matter of time.” From the report: As for how they might do that, there seem to be two different approaches that are being developed. The first one involves the creation of a new “communal” space — an area on the lock screen that might be accessed by swiping inward from the right. Although the communal space is still unfinished, I was able to activate it in the new Android 14 QPR2 Beta 3 update. Once I activated the communal space, a large gray bar appeared on the right side of the lock screen on my Pixel device. After swiping inward, a pencil icon appeared on the top left of the screen. Tapping this icon opened a widget selector that allowed me to add widgets from Google Calendar, Google Clock, and the Google App, but I wasn’t able to add widgets from most of my other apps. This is because the widget category needs to be set to KEYGUARD in order for it to appear in this selector. KEYGUARD is a category Google introduced in Android 4.2 Jelly Bean that very few apps utilize today since the lock screen hasn’t supported showing widgets in nearly a decade. After adding the widgets for Google Clock and Google Finance, I returned to the communal space by swiping inward from the right on the lock screen. The widgets were indeed shown in this space without me needing to unlock the device. However, the lock screen UI was shown on top of the widgets, making things difficult to see. Clearly, this feature is still a work in progress in the current beta. […]

While it’s possible this communal space won’t be coming to all devices, there’s another way that Google could bring widgets back to the lock screen for Android phones: leveraging At a Glance. If you aren’t familiar, Pixel phones have a widget on the home screen and lock screen called At a Glance. The interesting thing about At a Glance is that it isn’t actually a widget but rather a “custom element behaving like a widget,” according to developer Kieron Quinn. Under the hood, At a Glance is built on top of Smartspace, the API that is responsible for creating the various cards you can swipe through. Although Smartspace supports creating a variety of card types, it currently can’t handle RemoteViews, the API on which Android app widgets are built. That could change soon, though, as Google is working on including RemoteViews into the Smartspace API.

It’s unclear whether this will allow raw widgets from all apps to be included in At a Glance, since it’s also possible that Google is only implementing this so it has more freedom in building new cards. Either way, this new addition to the Smartspace API would supercharge the At a Glance widget in Android 15, and we’re excited to see what Google has in store for us.

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eBay To Pay $3 Million Penalty For Employees Sending Live Cockroaches, Fetal Pig To Bloggers

E-commerce giant eBay agreed to pay a $3 million penalty for the harassment and stalking of a Massachusetts couple by several of its employees. “The couple, Ina and David Steiner, had been subjected to threats and bizarre deliveries, including live spiders, cockroaches, a funeral wreath and a bloody pig mask in August 2019,” reports CBS News. From the report: Thursday’s fine comes after several eBay employees ran a harassment and intimidation campaign against the Steiners, who publish a news website focusing on players in the e-commerce industry. “eBay engaged in absolutely horrific, criminal conduct. The company’s employees and contractors involved in this campaign put the victims through pure hell, in a petrifying campaign aimed at silencing their reporting and protecting the eBay brand,” Levy said. “We left no stone unturned in our mission to hold accountable every individual who turned the victims’ world upside-down through a never-ending nightmare of menacing and criminal acts.”

The Justice Department criminally charged eBay with two counts of stalking through interstate travel, two counts of stalking through electronic communications services, one count of witness tampering and one count of obstruction of justice. The company agreed to pay $3 million as part of a deferred prosecution agreement. Under the agreement, eBay will be required to retain an independent corporate compliance monitor for three years, officials said, to “ensure that eBay’s senior leadership sets a tone that makes compliance with the law paramount, implements safeguards to prevent future criminal activity, and makes clear to every eBay employee that the idea of terrorizing innocent people and obstructing investigations will not be tolerated,” Levy said.

Former U.S. Attorney Andrew Lelling said the plan to target the Steiners, which he described as a “campaign of terror,” was hatched in April 2019 at eBay. Devin Wenig, eBay’s CEO at the time, shared a link to a post Ina Steiner had written about his annual pay. The company’s chief communications officer, Steve Wymer, responded: “We are going to crush this lady.” About a month later, Wenig texted: “Take her down.” Prosecutors said Wymer later texted eBay security director Jim Baugh. “I want to see ashes. As long as it takes. Whatever it takes,” Wymer wrote. Investigators said Baugh set up a meeting with security staff and dispatched a team to Boston, about 20 miles from where the Steiners live. “Senior executives at eBay were frustrated with the newsletter’s tone and content, and with the comments posted beneath the newsletter’s articles,” the Department of Justice wrote in its Thursday announcement. Two former eBay security executives were sentenced to prison over the incident.

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X Announces Peer-To-Peer Payment Service Will Launch In 2024

SonicSpike shares a report from Forbes: X, the social media site formerly known as Twitter, announced it would begin rolling out a peer-to-peer payment service similar to Venmo or PayPal this year — a feature the social media site’s billionaire owner Elon Musk has long pushed as part of his plan to develop an “everything app.” X officially announced the new feature in a blog post, touting the new service designed to enhance “user utility and new opportunities for commerce.” The company did not give a timeframe on when the new service would be available, but Musk previously told Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood it could launch as early as “mid-2024.”

According to the company, the new payment service will “showcas[e] the power of living more of your life in one place,” as owner Elon Musk continues to promote X as a future “everything app” capable of handling social media, video and other original content on the same site. X Payments has registered to do business in at least 32 states, according to public records, and has acquired a money transmitter license needed to process payments in 10, TechCrunch reported in December.

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SpaceX Sends First Text Messages Using Starlink Satellites

Just six days after being launched atop a Falcon 9 rocket, one of SpaceX’s six Starlink satellites was used to send text messages for the first time. Space.com reports: That update didn’t reveal what the first Starlink direct-to-cell text said. In a post on X on Wednesday, SpaceX founder and CEO Elon Musk said the message was “LFGMF2024,” but the chances are fairly high that he was joking. […] Beaming connectivity service from satellites directly to smartphones — which SpaceX is doing via a partnership with T-Mobile — is a difficult proposition, as SpaceX noted in Wednesday’s update.

“For example, in terrestrial networks cell towers are stationary, but in a satellite network they move at tens of thousands of miles per hour relative to users on Earth,” SpaceX wrote. “This requires seamless handoffs between satellites and accommodations for factors like Doppler shift and timing delays that challenge phone-to-space communications. Cell phones are also incredibly difficult to connect to satellites hundreds of kilometers away, given a mobile phone’s low antenna gain and transmit power.”

The direct-to-cell Starlink satellites overcome these challenges thanks to “innovative new custom silicon, phased-array antennas and advanced software algorithms,” SpaceX added. Overcoming tough challenges can lead to great rewards, and that’s the case here, according to SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell. “Satellite connectivity direct to cell phones will have a tremendous impact around the world, helping people communicate wherever and whenever they want or need to,” Shotwell said via X on Wednesday.

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A Huge Battery Has Replaced Hawaii’s Last Coal Plant

Julian Spector reports via Canary Media: Hawaii shut down its last coal plant on September 1, 2022, eliminating 180 megawatts of fossil-fueled baseload power from the grid on Oahu — a crucial step in the state’s first-in-the-nation commitment to cease burning fossil fuels for electricity by 2045. But the move posed a question that’s becoming increasingly urgent as clean energy surges across the United States: How do you maintain a reliable grid while switching from familiar fossil plants to a portfolio of small and large renewables that run off the vagaries of the weather? Now Hawaii has an answer: It’s a gigantic battery, unlike the gigantic batteries that have been built before.

The Kapolei Energy Storage system actually began commercial operations before Christmas on the industrial west side of Oahu, according to Plus Power, the Houston-based firm that developed and owns the project. Now, Kapolei’s 158 Tesla Megapacks are charging and discharging based on signals from utility Hawaiian Electric. The plant’s 185 megawatts of instantaneous discharge capacity match what the old coal plant could inject into the grid, though the batteries react far more quickly, with a 250-millisecond response time. Instead of generating power, they absorb it from the grid, ideally when it’s flush with renewable generation, and deliver that cheap, clean power back in the evening hours when it’s desperately needed.

The construction process had its setbacks, as did the broader effort to replace the coal plant with a roster of large-scale clean energy projects. The Kapolei battery was initially intended to come online before the coal plant retired. Covid disrupted deliveries for the grid battery industry across the board, and Kapolei’s remote location in the middle of the Pacific Ocean didn’t make things easier. By summer 2021, Plus Power was hoping to complete Kapolei by the end of 2022, but it ended up taking another year. Even then, it has joined the grid before several of the other large solar and battery projects slated to replace the coal plant’s production with clean power.

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