AI-Powered ‘HorseGPT’ Fails to Predict This Year’s Kentucky Derby Winner

In 2016, an online “swarm intelligence” platform generated a correct prediction for the Kentucky Derby — naming all four top finishers, in order. (But the next year their predictions weren’t even close, with TechRepublic suggesting 2016’s race had an unusual cluster of just a few top racehorses.)

So this year Decrypt.co tried crafting their own system “that can be called up when the next Kentucky Derby draws near.
There are a variety of ways to enlist artificial intelligence in horse racing. You could process reams of data based on your own methodology, trust a third-party pre-trained model, or even build a bespoke solution from the ground up. We decided to build a GPT we named HorseGPT to crunch the numbers and make the picks for us…

We carefully curated prompts to instill HorseGPT with expertise in data science specific to horse racing: how weather affects times, the role of jockeys and riding styles, the importance of post positions, and so on. We then fed it a mix of research papers and blogs covering the theoretical aspects of wagering, and layered on practical knowledge: how to read racing forms, what the statistics mean, which factors are most predictive, expert betting strategies, and more. Finally, we gave HorseGPT a wealth of historical Kentucky Derby data, arming it with the raw information needed to put its freshly imparted skills to use.
We unleashed HorseGPT on official racing forms for this year’s Derby. We asked HorseGPT to carefully analyze each race’s form, identify the top contenders, and recommend wager types and strategies based on deep background knowledge derived from race statistics.

HorseGPT picked two horses to win — both of which failed to do so. (Sierra Leone did finish second — in a rare photo finish. But Fierceness finished… 15th.) It also recommended the same two horses if you were trying to pick the top two finishers in the correct order — a losing bet, since, again, Fierceness finished 15th.

But even worse, HorseGPT recommended betting on Just a Touch to finish in either first or second place. When the race was over, that horse finished dead last. (And when asked to pick the top three finishers in correct order, HorseGPT stuck with its choices for the top two — which finished #2 and #15 — and, again, Just a Touch, who came in last.)

When Google Gemini was asked to pick the winner by The Athletic, it first chose Catching Freedom (who finished 4th). But it then gave an entirely different answer when asked to predict the winner “with an Italian accent.”

“The winner of the Kentucky Derby will be… Just a Touch! Si, that’s-a right, the underdog! There will be much-a celebrating in the piazzas, thatta-a I guarantee!”

Again, Just a Touch came in last.

Decrypt noticed the same thing. “Interestingly enough, our HorseGPT AI agent and the other out-of-the-box chatbots seemed to agree with each other,” the site notes, “and with many experts analysts cited by the official Kentucky Derby website.”

But there was one glimmer of insight into the 20-horse race. When asked to choose the top four finishers in order, HorseGPT repeated those same losing picks — which finished #2, #15, and #20. But then it added two more underdogs for fourth place finishers, “based on their potential to outperform expectations under muddy conditions.”
One of those two horses — Domestic Product — finished in 13th place.

But the other of the two horses was Mystik Dan — who came in first.

Mystik Dan appeared in only one of the six “Top 10 Finishers” lists (created by humans) at the official Kentucky Derby site… in the #10 position.

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Humans Now Share the Web Equally With Bots, Report Warns

An anonymous reader quotes a report from The Independent, published last month: Humans now share the web equally with bots, according to a major new report — as some fear that the internet is dying. In recent months, the so-called “dead internet theory” has gained new popularity. It suggests that much of the content online is in fact automatically generated, and that the number of humans on the web is dwindling in comparison with bot accounts. Now a new report from cyber security company Imperva suggests that it is increasingly becoming true. Nearly half, 49.6 per cent, of all internet traffic came from bots last year, its “Bad Bot Report” indicates. That is up 2 percent in comparison with last year, and is the highest number ever seen since the report began in 2013. In some countries, the picture is worse. In Ireland, 71 per cent of internet traffic is automated, it said.

Some of that rise is the result of the adoption of generative artificial intelligence and large language models. Companies that build those systems use bots scrape the internet and gather data that can then be used to train them. Some of those bots are becoming increasingly sophisticated, Imperva warned. More and more of them come from residential internet connections, which makes them look more legitimate. “Automated bots will soon surpass the proportion of internet traffic coming from humans, changing the way that organizations approach building and protecting their websites and applications,” said Nanhi Singh, general manager for application security at Imperva. “As more AI-enabled tools are introduced, bots will become omnipresent.”

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Apple Announces Largest-Ever $110 Billion Share Buyback As iPhone Sales Drop

Apple reported fiscal second-quarter earnings that topped estimates, despite a 10% drop in iPhone sales. The company also announced that its board had authorized $110 billion in share repurchases, “a 22% increase over last year’s $90 billion authorization,” notes CNBC. “It’s the largest buyback in history, ahead of Apple’s previous repurchases.” From the report: Apple did not provide formal guidance, but Apple CEO Tim Cook told CNBC’s Steve Kovach that overall sales would grow in the “low single digits” during the June quarter. Apple posted $81.8 billion in revenue during the year-ago June quarter and LSEG analysts were looking for a forecast of $83.23 billion. On an earnings call with analysts, Apple finance chief Luca Maestri said the company expected the current quarter will deliver double-digit year-over-year percentage growth in iPad sales. What’s more, he said the Services division is forecast to continue growing at about the current high rate it’s achieved during the past two quarters.

Apple reported net income of $23.64 billion, or $1.53 per share, down 2% from $24.16 billion, or $1.52 per share, in the year-earlier period. Cook told CNBC that sales in the fiscal second quarter suffered from a difficult comparison to the year-earlier period, when the company realized $5 billion in delayed iPhone 14 sales from Covid-based supply issues. “If you remove that $5 billion from last year’s results, we would have grown this quarter on a year-over-year basis,” Cook said. “And so that’s how we look at it internally from how the company is performing.”

Apple said iPhone sales fell nearly 10% to $45.96 billion, suggesting weak demand for the current generation of smartphones, which were released in September. The sales were in line with analyst estimates, and Cook said that without last year’s increased sales, iPhone revenue would have been flat. Mac sales were up 4% to $7.45 billion, but they are still below the segment’s high-water mark set in 2022. Cook said sales were driven by the company’s new MacBook Air models which were released with an upgraded M3 chip in March. Other Products, which is how Apple reports sales of its Apple Watch and AirPods headphones, was down 10% year over year to $7.9 billion.

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US Official Urges China, Russia To Declare AI Will Not Control Nuclear Weapons

Senior Department arms control official Paul Dean on Thursday urged China and Russia to declare that artificial intelligence would never make decisions on deploying nuclear weapons. Washington had made a “clear and strong commitment” that humans had total control over nuclear weapons, said Dean. Britain and France have made similar commitments. Reuters reports: “We would welcome a similar statement by China and the Russian Federation,” said Dean, principal deputy assistant secretary in the Bureau of Arms Control, Deterrence and Stability. “We think it is an extremely important norm of responsible behaviour and we think it is something that would be very welcome in a P5 context,” he said, referring to the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council.

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Nurses Say Hospital Adoption of Half-Cooked ‘AI’ Is Reckless

An anonymous reader quotes a report from Techdirt: Last week, hundreds of nurses protested the implementation of sloppy AI into hospital systems in front of Kaiser Permanente. Their primary concern: that systems incapable of empathy are being integrated into an already dysfunctional sector without much thought toward patient care: “No computer, no AI can replace a human touch,” said Amy Grewal, a registered nurse. “It cannot hold your loved one’s hand. You cannot teach a computer how to have empathy.”

There are certainly roles automation can play in easing strain on a sector full of burnout after COVID, particularly when it comes to administrative tasks. The concern, as with other industries dominated by executives with poor judgement, is that this is being used as a justification by for-profit hospital systems to cut corners further. From a National Nurses United blog post (spotted by 404 Media): “Nurses are not against scientific or technological advancement, but we will not accept algorithms replacing the expertise, experience, holistic, and hands-on approach we bring to patient care,” they added.

Kaiser Permanente, for its part, insists it’s simply leveraging “state-of-the-art tools and technologies that support our mission of providing high-quality, affordable health care to best meet our members’ and patients’ needs.” The company claims its “Advance Alert” AI monitoring system — which algorithmically analyzes patient data every hour — has the potential to save upwards of 500 lives a year. The problem is that healthcare giants’ primary obligation no longer appears to reside with patients, but with their financial results. And, that’s even true in non-profit healthcare providers. That is seen in the form of cut corners, worse service, and an assault on already over-taxed labor via lower pay and higher workload (curiously, it never seems to impact outsized high-level executive compensation).

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Spotify Hides Song Lyrics Behind Paywall

Several users on Reddit have noticed that Spotify has started hiding song lyrics behind a paywall. “This means you won’t be able to sing along unless you know the lyrics already, or are willing to look them up in another app,” reports Android Police. From the report: Still, you lose the convenience of real-time sync with the track and automatic scrolling. Like skips per hour, it appears Spotify will implement a limit system and accessing lyrics will count against the user’s limit, which should ideally reset after a stipulated time.

Spotify usually requests lyrics from songwriters, publishers, and independent artists. However, in most other cases, the company has a working relationship with MusixMatch to provide lyrics, and perhaps Spotify isn’t willing to absorb the costs of this partnership. That would explain why lyrics are now paywalled, but as a free-tier user, such changes are chipping away at the service’s appeal.

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Pet Parrots Prefer Live Video-Calls Over Watching Pre-Recorded Videos

When given the choice, pet parrots prefer to video-call each other instead of watch pre-recorded videos of other birds. Those are the findings from a new paper (PDF) set to appear next week at a conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems in Hawaii. Phys.Org reports: The study, led by animal-computer interaction specialists at the University of Glasgow, gave tablet devices to nine parrots and their owners to explore the potential of the video chats to expand the birds’ social lives. Their results suggest that the clever birds, who often suffer from loneliness in captivity, may be able to tell the difference between live and pre-recorded content on digital devices, and strongly prefer interacting with other birds in real time.

Over the course of the six-month study, the parrots chose to initiate calls to other birds significantly more often than they opted to watch pre-recorded footage. They also seemed more engaged in the live chats, spending much longer on calls with other birds than they did watching videos from a library of options. The findings could help steer the future course of the emerging “animal internet,” which uses digital technology to empower animals to interact with humans and each other in new ways.

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Google Lays Off Hundreds of ‘Core’ Employees, Moves Some Positions To India and Mexico

According to CNBC, Google is laying off at least 200 employees from its “Core” teams and moving some roles to India and Mexico. From the report: The Core unit is responsible for building the technical foundation behind the company’s flagship products and for protecting users’ online safety, according to Google’s website. Core teams include key technical units from information technology, its Python developer team, technical infrastructure, security foundation, app platforms, core developers, and various engineering roles. At least 50 of the positions eliminated were in engineering at the company’s offices in Sunnyvale, California, filings show. Many Core teams will hire corresponding roles in Mexico and India, according to internal documents viewed by CNBC.

Asim Husain, vice president of Google Developer Ecosystem, announced news of the layoffs to his team in an email last week. He also spoke at a town hall and told employees that this was the biggest planned reduction for his team this year, an internal document shows. “We intend to maintain our current global footprint while also expanding in high-growth global workforce locations so that we can operate closer to our partners and developer communities,” Husain wrote in the email. […] “Announcements of this sort may leave many of you feeling uncertain or frustrated,” Husain wrote in the email to developers. He added that his message to developers is that the changes “are in service of our broader goals” as a company. The teams involved in the reorganization have been key to the company’s developer tools, an area Google is streamlining as it incorporates more artificial intelligence into the products.

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PFAS Increase Likelihood of Death By Cardiovascular Disease, Study Shows

New submitter berghem shares a report from The Guardian: For the first time, researchers have formally shown that exposure to toxic PFAS increases the likelihood of death by cardiovascular disease, adding a new level of concern to the controversial chemicals’ wide use. The findings are especially significant because proving an association with death by chemical exposure is difficult, but researchers were able to establish it by reviewing death records from northern Italy’s Veneto region, where many residents for decades drank water highly contaminated with PFAS, also called “forever chemicals.” Records further showed an increased likelihood of death from several cancers, but stopped short of establishing a formal association because of other factors. […]

Veneto’s drinking water was widely contaminated by a PFAS-production plant between 1985 and 2018. Researchers first found an excess of about 4,000 deaths during this period, or about one every three days. Part of the region was supplied with water from a different source, giving researchers the opportunity to compare records for tens of thousands of people who drank contaminated water and lived near those who did not. Though PFAS can affect the cardiovascular system in different ways, it is largely a problem because it produces stubbornly high and dangerous levels of cholesterol. The levels are difficult to control because they aren’t caused by dietary or lifestyle choices that can be addressed with adjustments, but hormonal changes that affect the metabolism and the body’s ability to control plaque in arteries. The study’s authors suspect that post-traumatic stress disorder caused by the environmental disaster, which upended lives across the region, may also be contributing to circulatory disease. The evidence of a jump in kidney cancer was also “very clear,” [said Annibale Biggeri, the peer-reviewed study’s lead author, and a researcher with the University of Padua]. In the study’s first five years, 16 cases were recorded, while 65 were recorded in the last five years. It also found elevated levels of testicular cancer during some time periods.

The records “showed clearly” that earlier life exposures led to higher levels of mortality, except for women who have multiple children. Previous research has found levels were higher in women with only one child. The chemicals accumulate in placentas and are passed on to children during pregnancy, which reduces levels in the body. Mortality levels among women who were of child-bearing age were generally lower, but increased in older women. The chemicals will be passed down to children for generations, said Laura Facciolo, a Veneto resident who drank contaminated water. She said the findings underscore the need to ban PFAS, and the disaster’s injustice. The findings have been published in the journal Environmental Health.

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Unity Appoints Ex-Zynga Exec Matthew Bromberg As CEO

Unity has appointed Matthew Bromberg, former CEO of Zynga, as its new CEO, president and board member. “Filling a role that has been temporarily filled by former Red Hat CEO Jim Whitehurst, Bromberg will formally join Unity as CEO on May 15,” reports VentureBeat. “Whitehurst will serve as executive chair of the Unity board, and Roelof Botha will transition from chairman to lead independent board member.” From the report: Bromberg fills a slot vacated by John Riccitiello, who resigned last fall after a pricing debacle that left game developers extremely angry at Unity. They calmed down after Unity walked back major parts of the price increase. It’s an important time for Unity as it is about to ship Unity 6, the latest version of its game engine, in competition with Epic Games’ Unreal Engine 5.4. Whitehurst will also return to Silver Lake, one of Unity’s two largest shareholders, where he had previously been a senior advisor and will now join as a managing director leading both operating and investment team initiatives.

Bromberg brings over 20 years of experience across the gaming industry, having previously served as Chief Operating Officer of leading mobile game developer and publisher Zynga, where he played a key role in the company’s turnaround, and was responsible for Zynga’s game studios globally, while also overseeing product development and design, technology, data, and analytics. Bromberg also held multiple leadership roles at Electronic Arts, where he helped scale the company’s mobile division and led teams on four continents that built popular games across all major genres.

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